By: Chinmay Vaidya

It took six years and several heart-breaking moments, but New Zealand is finally a cricket champion. The Blackcaps defeated India in the World Test Championship final by eight wickets, with Kane Williamson and Ross Taylor fittingly taking the team home. Weather and bad light threatened chances for a result, but the reserve day was clear and allowed for New Zealand to get a win.

New Zealand's dominant pace bowling attack was on point in this game. Tim Southee, Trent Boult, Kyle Jamieson and Neil Wagner accounted for every Indian wicket in both innings, with Jamieson taking a five-wicket haul in the first innings. It was his fifth five-wicket haul in eight career Test matches. Southee added 30 crucial runs with the bat, while Boult and Wagner took big wickets on Day 6 to set up a manageable chase.

The victory means New Zealand's "golden generation" finally has a championship under its belt after falling short on several occasions. The Blackcaps started to rise in 2015 with the World Cup, where Brendan McCullum and Grant Elliott took the team to its first ever final. New Zealand made a semifinal exit in the 2016 T20 World Cup after looking like the best team in the tournament, but the biggest sting was the 2019 World Cup final. New Zealand and England actually tied in the match, but a boundary count tiebreaker gave the hosts a win. New Zealand had several chances to win that match and many players will remember that day forever. This win, however, helps ease the pain of that defeat.

Taylor, Southee, Wagner and BJ Watling will have a championship to their name after setting the foundation for the Test team for years. Williamson completes what McCullum started by adding a trophy to the cabinet, though he and the group will want more in the coming years. Henry Nicholls, Trent Boult and Tom Latham have also been key contributors throughout the years for the New Zealand side. And then there's newcomers like Jamieson and Devon Conway, who ultimately proved to be vital integrations to the side.

From here, there will be two T20 World Cups and a one-day World Cup to pursue. The monkey is finally off New Zealand's back. The Blackcaps are world champions.

By: Chinmay Vaidya

The Mumbai Indians have become the IPL's modern dynasty. After failing to capture a title in the competition's first five seasons, Mumbai won five championships in the ensuing eight years to establish themselves as the kings of the league. A strong Indian contingent with Rohit Sharma, Jasprit Bumrah and both Pandya brothers paired well with international stars like Kieron Pollard and Lasith Malinga worked wonders for Mumbai. The club's developmental component cannot be overlooked, producing Suryakumar Yadav, Ishan Kishan and Rahul Chahar to join an already loaded group. When Malinga bid farwell to the IPL, the Indians swung a trade to land Trent Boult after adding Quinton de Kock to the top of the order the previous season. Both moves have worked brilliantly. Mumbai has already made history with its fifth IPL title. But the 2021 competition offers another chance for the record books; the league's first three-peat.

No team has won three consecutive titles in IPL history. In fact, only one team has made three straight finals. Chennai Super Kings went to four straight title games in MS Dhoni's heyday, relying on the same formula Mumbai have today aside from using Dhoni's clout as India's captain to attract the best domestic talent. CSK maintained strong roster continuity centered on a talented Indian core while adding game-changing internationals. Will Mumbai be able to ride similar continuity to a third title?

In 2019, Mumbai's "top 10" players accounted for 143 total games played. This group tallied 2,323 runs and picked up 74 wickets on the way to a fourth championship. Malinga bowed out from the competition, but Mumbai was able to double his wicket production with Boult. Kishan only played seven games in 2019 before playing 14 in 2020. Mumbai's "top 10" essentially duplicated its production in 2020, scoring 2,489 runs and racking up 77 wickets in 149 combined games. Kishan's monster season, Yadav's continued excellence after a breakout 2019 and de Kock's brilliance at the top of the order masked underwhelming seasons from the Pandyas. Sharma struggled as well early in the season and an injury kept him out of some games late before a match-winning 68 in the final.

Replicating this level of production for a third consecutive season won't be easy. In 2019, Mumbai had four batsmen in the league's top 20 run scorers and five bowlers in the top 20 wicket takers. The Indians only had three batsmen in the top 20 run scorers in 2020, but they all finished in the top 10 with Sharma landing at 23. They also had three bowlers in the top 20 wicket takers but like the batsmen, these players ranked very high. Chahar was finished in the 11th spot and James Pattinson was tied for the league's 20 best wicket tally before being sidelined for Nathan Coulter-Nile. Speaking of Coulter-Nile, he might eventually cede his spot in the lineup to Jimmy Neesham if the Indians want to extend their batting lineup.

Injuries may also come into play. If we count a full season as 14 league games and two playoff games since Mumbai hasn't played in the eliminator, the Indians have gotten 89.4% and 93.1% of the possible games from their top 10. That group will remain intact with Neesham and Coulter-Nile likely to be in that 11th spot. If injuries occur, Mumbai may have to lean on unproven talent. Rising COVID cases in India, particularly in Mumbai, is another worry. IPL personnel have already tested positive for the virus ahead of the season. An outbreak within a team could upend the entire season.

Natural regression is most likely to derail Mumbai's quest for a third straight title. Bumrah and Boult combined for 52 wickets in 2020, a number they are not likely to reach again. de Kock is vying for a third consecutive 500-run campaign, an incredibly difficult feat. Yadav and Kishan will be trying to replicate big-time performances as well. The Pandya brothers are in form heading into the league; they could return to peak form to offset some regression from Mumbai's top players. The same thing goes for Sharma. Neesham's ability as an all-rounder could add more runs and wickets. The Indians should have enough cover for natural regression if players who had down 2020 campaigns can bounce back.

Ultimately, if Mumbai stays healthy, the team will have a strong chance to at least get to the final. The franchise broke its "odd year" trend in 2020 and its players are in form during the limited cricket played since the pandemic took over the world. History is hard to achieve, but the Mumbai Indians are no stranger to chasing it. They'll be going for it again in 2021.

By: Chinmay Vaidya

In my previous IPL 2021 preview post about high-priced bowlers, I promised there would be analysis on Glenn Maxwell. Even though Maxwell bowled 21 overs in IPL 2020, he did not get included among the all-rounders on the bowling analysis despite going for 14.25 crores in the most recent auction. Maxwell is no stranger to the auction; he was a bidding target in the 2018 and 2020 auctions, going for 9.0 and 10.75 crores respectively. Maxwell's perceived value has increased 19.4 percent from 2018 to 2020 and 32.6% from 2020 to 2021. Has his production matched these increases?

The simple answer is no, but Maxwell is still able to create enough value to go for big bucks in the auction. He did it on the international circuit after missing IPL 2019 and returned to form ahead of the 2021 auction. Will Royal Challengers be able to translate that international form into IPL success?

Maxwell performed extremely well in IPL 2017, tallying 310 runs in 14 matches at a strike rate of 173.2. That performance landed him 9 crores in the 2018 auction, but Maxwell's form dipped. He only managed 169 runs in the 2018 campaign and his strike rate fell to 140.8. So how did he gain 1.75 crores in the 2020 auction despite scoring less runs at a slower rate?

In 18 T20 international matches between IPL 2018 and IPL 2020, Maxwell was able to log 504 runs at a strike rate of 149.1. He managed a century and four 50s during that time. It would be easy for any franchise, in this case Punjab, to think Maxwell's 2018 IPL campaign was an anomaly. Add in his marketing value and fan appeal and Punjab have a reasonable case to blow 10.75 crores on him. Then IPL 2020 happened.

Maxwell was disastrous in his return to the league with Punjab. He scored 108 runs at a strike rate of 101.9 with his highest individual score being 32. For comparison, Pat Cummins, Jofra Archer and Sam Curran all outscored Maxwell. All had higher strike rates and only Archer failed to score higher than 32 in a single innings. Not exactly worth 10.75 crores.

But despite all that, Maxwell somehow found 14.25 crores in the 2021 auction. So what the hell happened between the end of IPL 2020 and the 2021 auction?

Maxwell played eight T20 internationals during that span, a somewhat high amount due to COVID restrictions. He was able to score 171 runs at a strike rate of 164.4, even hitting two half-centuries. So maybe RCB thought IPL 2020 was the anomaly.

In reality, Maxwell's 310-run season seems to be the outlier. His 552-run campaign from 2014 isn't going to come back any time soon. Take away those two monster seasons (and his first two IPLs where he played a combined five matches) and Maxwell's average comes to 150.25 runs per season. His strike rate in those four seasons averages out to 130.1, which is just below the desired number for a player in his role.

Virat Kohli's squad seems ready to contend after the emergence of Devdutt Padikkal and development from Washington Sundar, Navdeep Saini and Mohammed Siraj. They saw the opportunity to add a quality finishing batsman to pair with AB de Villiers in Maxwell and were willing to pay top dollar, mostly because they could. RCB don't need 2014 Maxwell, but they definitely need 2017 Maxwell to show up. This is a chance for the big-spending franchise and the big-money player to prove the numbers wrong. Even if the numbers win, don't expect Maxwell's future value to dip. There will always be another franchise thinking he can find form.

By: Chinmay Vaidya

The IPL auction is always a wild ride. With exorbitant numbers being thrown around in an attempt to snag the world's best players, franchises can occasionally go overboard. This leads to big paydays for players, but do franchises recoup this value on the field? And if they don't, have they learned from their past failures?

METHODOLOGY

There needs to be some sort of cut-off point for auction price and frankly, no number is perfect for this. I've settled on 8.0 crores as the minimum price for a bowler to qualify as "high cost". There's players who don't meet this qualification but certainly could be considered "high cost", like all-rounder Moeen Ali going for 7.0 crores to Chennai Super Kings in this past auction. 

Since all-rounders are technically bowlers, they're included in this analysis. The one "all-rounder" not in this list is Glenn Maxwell (there'll be a separate breakdown on him) for two reasons; his auction prices and his bowling history. Maxwell has bowled 91 overs total in his eight IPL seasons, with 21 of those coming last year (his highest ever in a season). His auctions price, on the other hand, has climbed from 9.0 crores to 10.75 crores to 14.25 crores in 2021. He's being bought primarily for his batting ability and including him in this analysis would throw off the numbers for true bowlers and bowling all-rounders. Mitchell Starc went for 9.4 crores in the 2018 auction, but withdrew from the IPL due to injury. He is not included as well.

I went back over the last five auctions and compiled a list of the bowlers and all-rounders meeting the above criteria. Including the 2016 auction, 14 players have gone for 8.0 crores or more. For those players, I looked at the number of matches played, number of overs bowled, economy rate, wickets taken, wicket ranking compared to the rest of the league and team standing for the season.

The 2021 auction saw Chris Morris, Kyle Jamieson, Jhye Richardson, Riley Meredith and Krishnappa Gowtham join the high-priced bowler club. Do the numbers say they'll be worth the price?

For starters, let's look at the list of players who meet this criteria over the last five auctions. Their auction price is list in crores, along with their relevant statistics and their team's league standing at the end of the season.

There are some obvious memorable duds from past seasons. Varun Chakravarthy, who actually led KKR in wickets last season, only bowled three overs for KXIP after being scooped up for 8.4 crores in the auction. Tymal Mills only took five wickets despite his high price tag in the 2017 auction and Pawan Negi managed just one wicket for Delhi in 2016. There are also some star performers like Rashid Khan and Shane Watson, who each took at least 20 wickets after going for big money in the auction. Only one player to go for big money has won a championship in the ensuing season. That was Nathan Coulter-Nile with Mumbai Indians last season and while he performed well in the final, Mumbai would've likely been okay with another less expensive all-rounder in his place. Jimmy Neesham could fill that spot this upcoming season.

​Here are the averages for the 14 "high cost" players listed above: price of 10.36 crores, economy of 8.48, 35.1 overs bowled, 9.6 wickets taken, average wicket ranking of 31.2 and 10.57 games played. These players' teams averaged a finish of 4.43, which is on the playoff fence. While that level of production is not awful, it is not reflective of a player accounting for a huge chunk of a team's payroll. But it would be too easy to say expensive auction bowlers don't pay off. Three of the above players hilariously flamed out after going for big money and eventually didn't play out the season. If we remove Chakravarthy, Mills and Negi from the equation, the list looks a lot more productive.

While this group of players is slightly more expensive at an average price of 10.56 crores, they obviously perform better across the board and more reflective of true high-priced bowlers.

Full 14 averages: 8.48 economy, 35.1 overs bowled, 9.6 wickets taken, 31.2 wicket ranking, 10.57 games played, 4.43 team finish
Top 11 averages: 8.11 economy, 42.0 overs bowled, 11.6 wickets taken, 22.1 wicket ranking, 12. 2 games played, 3.82 team finish

While these expensive buys still aren't delivering at a truly elite level, they're performing far better once the three negative outliers are removed. The wicket numbers and average team finish improve enough to make a big-time bowler worth buying for a team flirting with playoff contention. To get a true sense of pure bowling performance, there's one more step to take. Since we removed the negative outliers, we should also remove the positive outliers and all-rounders. This eliminates the over-the-top performance of Rashid Khan with the ball in 2018, but it also takes out Ben Stokes, Shane Watson and Krunal Pandya as these players were contributing to their team success with the bat as well. Chris Morris and Coulter-Nile might want to claim they are all-rounders, but they combined for 59 runs in their above seasons. Meanwhile, Stokes' disappointing 2018 campaign with the Royals saw him tally 196 runs. There's really no comparison. Once we remove the positive outliers and genuine all-rounders, the picture becomes a lot clearer.

As you can probably guess, the genuine all-rounders are worth their price point. Here are the averages of the six "high cost" bowlers from the last five auctions. They've bowled at least 20 overs and have no true batting value tied to their price point, although Cummins, Morris and Coulter-Nile can occasionally play a decent knock.

​Full 14 averages: 8.48 economy, 35.1 overs bowled, 9.6 wickets taken, 31.2 wicket ranking, 10.57 games played, 4.43 team finish
Top 11 averages: 8.11 economy, 42.0 overs bowled, 11.6 wickets taken, 22.1 wicket ranking, 12. 2 games played, 3.82 team finish
Final 6 averages: 8.58 economy, 36.1 overs bowled, 9.2 wickets taken, 27.7 wicket ranking, 10.3 games played, 4.5 team finish

The averages drop across the board and without the influence of the all-rounders, the high-priced bowlers don't actually fair that well. They'll take wickets and keep the economy rate manageable, but they usually will underwhelm relative to their price point. Sure, you may get a Rashid Khan but you can also get a Varun Chakravarthy. A high auction price is great for your bank account, but you still have to bowl the ball to a real batsman in a real match to back it up. So far, franchises haven't seen the type of return you'd expect for bowlers bought at 8.0 crores or more.

So what does this ultimately mean for Morris, Jamieson, Richardson, Meredith and Gowtham in 2021? Three of the group will likely have some chances with the bat to add value and all five are going to get more than 10 games barring injuries. They're going to have good games, but they're also going to have bad ones. And in all likelihood, they'll be average to slightly above average IPL players.