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By: Chinmay Vaidya
The Mumbai Indians have become the IPL's modern dynasty. After failing to capture a title in the competition's first five seasons, Mumbai won five championships in the ensuing eight years to establish themselves as the kings of the league. A strong Indian contingent with Rohit Sharma, Jasprit Bumrah and both Pandya brothers paired well with international stars like Kieron Pollard and Lasith Malinga worked wonders for Mumbai. The club's developmental component cannot be overlooked, producing Suryakumar Yadav, Ishan Kishan and Rahul Chahar to join an already loaded group. When Malinga bid farwell to the IPL, the Indians swung a trade to land Trent Boult after adding Quinton de Kock to the top of the order the previous season. Both moves have worked brilliantly. Mumbai has already made history with its fifth IPL title. But the 2021 competition offers another chance for the record books; the league's first three-peat. No team has won three consecutive titles in IPL history. In fact, only one team has made three straight finals. Chennai Super Kings went to four straight title games in MS Dhoni's heyday, relying on the same formula Mumbai have today aside from using Dhoni's clout as India's captain to attract the best domestic talent. CSK maintained strong roster continuity centered on a talented Indian core while adding game-changing internationals. Will Mumbai be able to ride similar continuity to a third title? In 2019, Mumbai's "top 10" players accounted for 143 total games played. This group tallied 2,323 runs and picked up 74 wickets on the way to a fourth championship. Malinga bowed out from the competition, but Mumbai was able to double his wicket production with Boult. Kishan only played seven games in 2019 before playing 14 in 2020. Mumbai's "top 10" essentially duplicated its production in 2020, scoring 2,489 runs and racking up 77 wickets in 149 combined games. Kishan's monster season, Yadav's continued excellence after a breakout 2019 and de Kock's brilliance at the top of the order masked underwhelming seasons from the Pandyas. Sharma struggled as well early in the season and an injury kept him out of some games late before a match-winning 68 in the final. Replicating this level of production for a third consecutive season won't be easy. In 2019, Mumbai had four batsmen in the league's top 20 run scorers and five bowlers in the top 20 wicket takers. The Indians only had three batsmen in the top 20 run scorers in 2020, but they all finished in the top 10 with Sharma landing at 23. They also had three bowlers in the top 20 wicket takers but like the batsmen, these players ranked very high. Chahar was finished in the 11th spot and James Pattinson was tied for the league's 20 best wicket tally before being sidelined for Nathan Coulter-Nile. Speaking of Coulter-Nile, he might eventually cede his spot in the lineup to Jimmy Neesham if the Indians want to extend their batting lineup. Injuries may also come into play. If we count a full season as 14 league games and two playoff games since Mumbai hasn't played in the eliminator, the Indians have gotten 89.4% and 93.1% of the possible games from their top 10. That group will remain intact with Neesham and Coulter-Nile likely to be in that 11th spot. If injuries occur, Mumbai may have to lean on unproven talent. Rising COVID cases in India, particularly in Mumbai, is another worry. IPL personnel have already tested positive for the virus ahead of the season. An outbreak within a team could upend the entire season. Natural regression is most likely to derail Mumbai's quest for a third straight title. Bumrah and Boult combined for 52 wickets in 2020, a number they are not likely to reach again. de Kock is vying for a third consecutive 500-run campaign, an incredibly difficult feat. Yadav and Kishan will be trying to replicate big-time performances as well. The Pandya brothers are in form heading into the league; they could return to peak form to offset some regression from Mumbai's top players. The same thing goes for Sharma. Neesham's ability as an all-rounder could add more runs and wickets. The Indians should have enough cover for natural regression if players who had down 2020 campaigns can bounce back. Ultimately, if Mumbai stays healthy, the team will have a strong chance to at least get to the final. The franchise broke its "odd year" trend in 2020 and its players are in form during the limited cricket played since the pandemic took over the world. History is hard to achieve, but the Mumbai Indians are no stranger to chasing it. They'll be going for it again in 2021.
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By: Chinmay Vaidya
In my previous IPL 2021 preview post about high-priced bowlers, I promised there would be analysis on Glenn Maxwell. Even though Maxwell bowled 21 overs in IPL 2020, he did not get included among the all-rounders on the bowling analysis despite going for 14.25 crores in the most recent auction. Maxwell is no stranger to the auction; he was a bidding target in the 2018 and 2020 auctions, going for 9.0 and 10.75 crores respectively. Maxwell's perceived value has increased 19.4 percent from 2018 to 2020 and 32.6% from 2020 to 2021. Has his production matched these increases? The simple answer is no, but Maxwell is still able to create enough value to go for big bucks in the auction. He did it on the international circuit after missing IPL 2019 and returned to form ahead of the 2021 auction. Will Royal Challengers be able to translate that international form into IPL success? Maxwell performed extremely well in IPL 2017, tallying 310 runs in 14 matches at a strike rate of 173.2. That performance landed him 9 crores in the 2018 auction, but Maxwell's form dipped. He only managed 169 runs in the 2018 campaign and his strike rate fell to 140.8. So how did he gain 1.75 crores in the 2020 auction despite scoring less runs at a slower rate? In 18 T20 international matches between IPL 2018 and IPL 2020, Maxwell was able to log 504 runs at a strike rate of 149.1. He managed a century and four 50s during that time. It would be easy for any franchise, in this case Punjab, to think Maxwell's 2018 IPL campaign was an anomaly. Add in his marketing value and fan appeal and Punjab have a reasonable case to blow 10.75 crores on him. Then IPL 2020 happened. Maxwell was disastrous in his return to the league with Punjab. He scored 108 runs at a strike rate of 101.9 with his highest individual score being 32. For comparison, Pat Cummins, Jofra Archer and Sam Curran all outscored Maxwell. All had higher strike rates and only Archer failed to score higher than 32 in a single innings. Not exactly worth 10.75 crores. But despite all that, Maxwell somehow found 14.25 crores in the 2021 auction. So what the hell happened between the end of IPL 2020 and the 2021 auction? Maxwell played eight T20 internationals during that span, a somewhat high amount due to COVID restrictions. He was able to score 171 runs at a strike rate of 164.4, even hitting two half-centuries. So maybe RCB thought IPL 2020 was the anomaly. In reality, Maxwell's 310-run season seems to be the outlier. His 552-run campaign from 2014 isn't going to come back any time soon. Take away those two monster seasons (and his first two IPLs where he played a combined five matches) and Maxwell's average comes to 150.25 runs per season. His strike rate in those four seasons averages out to 130.1, which is just below the desired number for a player in his role. Virat Kohli's squad seems ready to contend after the emergence of Devdutt Padikkal and development from Washington Sundar, Navdeep Saini and Mohammed Siraj. They saw the opportunity to add a quality finishing batsman to pair with AB de Villiers in Maxwell and were willing to pay top dollar, mostly because they could. RCB don't need 2014 Maxwell, but they definitely need 2017 Maxwell to show up. This is a chance for the big-spending franchise and the big-money player to prove the numbers wrong. Even if the numbers win, don't expect Maxwell's future value to dip. There will always be another franchise thinking he can find form. By: Chinmay Vaidya The IPL auction is always a wild ride. With exorbitant numbers being thrown around in an attempt to snag the world's best players, franchises can occasionally go overboard. This leads to big paydays for players, but do franchises recoup this value on the field? And if they don't, have they learned from their past failures? METHODOLOGY There needs to be some sort of cut-off point for auction price and frankly, no number is perfect for this. I've settled on 8.0 crores as the minimum price for a bowler to qualify as "high cost". There's players who don't meet this qualification but certainly could be considered "high cost", like all-rounder Moeen Ali going for 7.0 crores to Chennai Super Kings in this past auction. Since all-rounders are technically bowlers, they're included in this analysis. The one "all-rounder" not in this list is Glenn Maxwell (there'll be a separate breakdown on him) for two reasons; his auction prices and his bowling history. Maxwell has bowled 91 overs total in his eight IPL seasons, with 21 of those coming last year (his highest ever in a season). His auctions price, on the other hand, has climbed from 9.0 crores to 10.75 crores to 14.25 crores in 2021. He's being bought primarily for his batting ability and including him in this analysis would throw off the numbers for true bowlers and bowling all-rounders. Mitchell Starc went for 9.4 crores in the 2018 auction, but withdrew from the IPL due to injury. He is not included as well. I went back over the last five auctions and compiled a list of the bowlers and all-rounders meeting the above criteria. Including the 2016 auction, 14 players have gone for 8.0 crores or more. For those players, I looked at the number of matches played, number of overs bowled, economy rate, wickets taken, wicket ranking compared to the rest of the league and team standing for the season. The 2021 auction saw Chris Morris, Kyle Jamieson, Jhye Richardson, Riley Meredith and Krishnappa Gowtham join the high-priced bowler club. Do the numbers say they'll be worth the price? For starters, let's look at the list of players who meet this criteria over the last five auctions. Their auction price is list in crores, along with their relevant statistics and their team's league standing at the end of the season.  There are some obvious memorable duds from past seasons. Varun Chakravarthy, who actually led KKR in wickets last season, only bowled three overs for KXIP after being scooped up for 8.4 crores in the auction. Tymal Mills only took five wickets despite his high price tag in the 2017 auction and Pawan Negi managed just one wicket for Delhi in 2016. There are also some star performers like Rashid Khan and Shane Watson, who each took at least 20 wickets after going for big money in the auction. Only one player to go for big money has won a championship in the ensuing season. That was Nathan Coulter-Nile with Mumbai Indians last season and while he performed well in the final, Mumbai would've likely been okay with another less expensive all-rounder in his place. Jimmy Neesham could fill that spot this upcoming season. Here are the averages for the 14 "high cost" players listed above: price of 10.36 crores, economy of 8.48, 35.1 overs bowled, 9.6 wickets taken, average wicket ranking of 31.2 and 10.57 games played. These players' teams averaged a finish of 4.43, which is on the playoff fence. While that level of production is not awful, it is not reflective of a player accounting for a huge chunk of a team's payroll. But it would be too easy to say expensive auction bowlers don't pay off. Three of the above players hilariously flamed out after going for big money and eventually didn't play out the season. If we remove Chakravarthy, Mills and Negi from the equation, the list looks a lot more productive.  While this group of players is slightly more expensive at an average price of 10.56 crores, they obviously perform better across the board and more reflective of true high-priced bowlers. Full 14 averages: 8.48 economy, 35.1 overs bowled, 9.6 wickets taken, 31.2 wicket ranking, 10.57 games played, 4.43 team finish Top 11 averages: 8.11 economy, 42.0 overs bowled, 11.6 wickets taken, 22.1 wicket ranking, 12. 2 games played, 3.82 team finish While these expensive buys still aren't delivering at a truly elite level, they're performing far better once the three negative outliers are removed. The wicket numbers and average team finish improve enough to make a big-time bowler worth buying for a team flirting with playoff contention. To get a true sense of pure bowling performance, there's one more step to take. Since we removed the negative outliers, we should also remove the positive outliers and all-rounders. This eliminates the over-the-top performance of Rashid Khan with the ball in 2018, but it also takes out Ben Stokes, Shane Watson and Krunal Pandya as these players were contributing to their team success with the bat as well. Chris Morris and Coulter-Nile might want to claim they are all-rounders, but they combined for 59 runs in their above seasons. Meanwhile, Stokes' disappointing 2018 campaign with the Royals saw him tally 196 runs. There's really no comparison. Once we remove the positive outliers and genuine all-rounders, the picture becomes a lot clearer.  As you can probably guess, the genuine all-rounders are worth their price point. Here are the averages of the six "high cost" bowlers from the last five auctions. They've bowled at least 20 overs and have no true batting value tied to their price point, although Cummins, Morris and Coulter-Nile can occasionally play a decent knock.
Full 14 averages: 8.48 economy, 35.1 overs bowled, 9.6 wickets taken, 31.2 wicket ranking, 10.57 games played, 4.43 team finish Top 11 averages: 8.11 economy, 42.0 overs bowled, 11.6 wickets taken, 22.1 wicket ranking, 12. 2 games played, 3.82 team finish Final 6 averages: 8.58 economy, 36.1 overs bowled, 9.2 wickets taken, 27.7 wicket ranking, 10.3 games played, 4.5 team finish The averages drop across the board and without the influence of the all-rounders, the high-priced bowlers don't actually fair that well. They'll take wickets and keep the economy rate manageable, but they usually will underwhelm relative to their price point. Sure, you may get a Rashid Khan but you can also get a Varun Chakravarthy. A high auction price is great for your bank account, but you still have to bowl the ball to a real batsman in a real match to back it up. So far, franchises haven't seen the type of return you'd expect for bowlers bought at 8.0 crores or more. So what does this ultimately mean for Morris, Jamieson, Richardson, Meredith and Gowtham in 2021? Three of the group will likely have some chances with the bat to add value and all five are going to get more than 10 games barring injuries. They're going to have good games, but they're also going to have bad ones. And in all likelihood, they'll be average to slightly above average IPL players. By: Chinmay Vaidya, Aneesh Tyle, Paarth Joshi and Aashay Chavan
The IPL 2021 auction saw some record-breaking buys despite a limited player pool, with big international names like Chris Morris, Kyle Jamieson and Glenn Maxwell raking in the cash. This auction was also important for rising Indian talents such as Krishnappa Gowtham, Shivam Dube and Shahrukh Khan. And if that wasn't enough, a Tendulkar is back in the IPL. Here's our breakdown of the auction results from the best deals to the most confusing moves. Best Buy of the Auction: CV: Jimmy Neesham going to Mumbai Indians for 50 lakhs. He's a versatile player who will slot in nicely in Mumbai's lower order while also providing another bowling option for Rohit Sharma. You can never have enough left-handed bats in the order and Neesham provides more punch than Mumbai's other No. 8 options. Throw in his fielding chops and his ability to bowl and you've got a steal at 50 lakhs. AT: Dawid Malan to Punjab for 1.5 crores. Simply put, he’s the No. 1 T20 batsman in the world and he was bought at an incredibly cheap price. Malan will slot in nicely to a Punjab middle order with Nicholas Pooran and free up KL Rahul to play a more attacking role at the top of the order. PJ: Malan. At 1.5 crores, he's going to be the best value for his price. Malan brings a strong track record in the T20 format and a No.1 ranking to Punjab and should provide another explosive option for the team at the top with Mayank Agarwal and KL Rahul. AC: Steve Smith or Dawid Malan. Both went for reasonable prices given their talent and both fit well with their respective squads. Smith will be a steady presence in Delhi's high-powered lineup and Malan gives Punjab some great firepower at the top as the ICC's No. 1 T20 batsman. Worst Buy of the Auction: CV: Chris Morris going to Rajasthan Royals for 16.25 crores. Morris is a decent player and all-rounders are hard to come by, but this is an insane price for a player who has never topped 200 runs in an IPL season. The Royals have a history of spending big on players who underperform; hopefully Morris can change that trend. AT: Cheteshwar Pujara to CSK for 50 lakhs. While he’s a cheap buy, Pujara is firmly a Test player and hasn’t featured in Indian limited overs cricket anytime recently. He may perform a similar role to when Delhi got Ajinkya Rahane last year, but any game he plays is a chance taken away from a younger Indian player to develop. He’s better off signed as a coach, rather than a player. PJ: Jhye Richardson to Punjab Kings for 14 crores. Despite coming off a fantastic BBL, Richardson is still inexperienced when it comes to international cricket and subcontinent pitches. At the price tag he’s gone for, it’s going to be very tough to live up to expectations especially after seeing how highly paid Australian fast bowlers have struggled in the IPL in the past. AC: Glenn Maxwell or Jhye Richardson. Maxwell's price somehow went up despite a horrendous 2020 IPL campaign and although he's capable of delivering big innings, he's been underwhelming recently. Richardson hasn't appeared in the IPL before and I don't know if he can handle the pressure of a high price tag. Team with Best Moves: CV: Delhi Capitals. They bring back the entire group from last year's run to the final, but bolster their secondary international options with Steven Smith, Tom Curran and Sam Billings while also adding Umesh Yadav as a backup pace option. Smith could provide a stabilizing presence in the middle order around Delhi's explosive batsmen if the lineup becomes too volatile. AT: RCB. Although they got lured into breaking the bank for Maxwell, their overseas buys of Jamieson, Maxwell, and Dan Christian have some of the most upside in the T20 game. After AB de Villiers, their lower order sorely lacked hitting power, which all three can provide. The trio also provides great variety as all-rounders to a previously predominantly Indian bowling attack, which will also be improved since Navdeep Saini, Washington Sundar, and Mohammed Siraj all got valuable experience in the recent England and Australia series. This is a team to watch out for if it clicks. PJ: RCB. They've got big-time names in Jamieson and Maxwell and both will fill important roles for the team which should be in contention for a playoff spot with a strong Indian core and de Villiers coming off a long break. AC: RCB or Delhi. Despite Maxwell being a costly addition, he's a strong candidate to return to at least average form. Jamieson and Dan Christian will be handy additions in a strong lineup. Delhi solidified their core as well with Smith, Curran and Billings. Team with Worst Moves: CV: Plenty of options here, but Punjab Kings made some shocking moves. Despite getting Malan and Fabian Allen for bargain prices, the franchise broke the bank for Jhye Richardson, Riley Meredith, Shahrukh Khan and Moises Henriques. Three have never appeared in an IPL match and Henriques last played in the league in 2017. Spending north of 30 crores for the quartet feels risky, especially since one big international buy is going to miss out if Malan and Nicolas Pooran are in the XI. AT: Sunrisers Hyderabad had a very quiet auction. This team needed Indian batsmen and foreign pacers, but didn’t get either in the auction. Kedar Jadhav may slot into their lineup although he has struggled for a while. Mujeeb bowling in tandem with Rashid is an exciting prospect, but would cost SRH an overseas batsman in their lineup which they desperately need to play. A veteran overseas pacer would be a big boost for an Indian pace attack that is often struck by the injury bug. PJ: CSK. The team needed to add power hitting at the top, but instead broke the bank for all-rounders Krishnappa Gowtham and Moeen Ali. Suresh Raina coming back in the mix should help CSK a little, but this team still lacks the batting power to make significant noise. AC: CSK. I have no clue what they are trying to do with that team. MS Dhoni isn't the batsman he once was and the squad showed its age last IPL season. Not sure if Raina returning will make any impact. Biggest Surprise of the Auction: CV: The general lack of analytics in the decision-making process. Shakib Al Hasan, possibly the best all-rounder in the world, went for 3.2 crores amid the big spending on Gowtham, Meredith and Maxwell. Malan, the No. 1 ranked T20 batsman, went for 1.5 crores while backups and unproven talent went for far greater prices. Sunrisers bought Mujeeb for 1.5 crores, but how many games will he get with David Warner, Kane Williamson, Rashid Khan and Jason Holder likely to be in the first XI? Jason Roy, Alex Hales and Glenn Phillips all carry T20 strike rates around 140.00. All three went unsold. AT: Alex Hales going unsold. He’s one of the most dynamic top order batsmen in limited over cricket, especially in T20 cricket. Hales hasn’t played international cricket recently due to issues with the ECB, but he always performs in domestic tournaments. He would slot into most teams’ opening pair if bought. PJ: Krishnappa Gowtham going to CSK for 9.25 crores. Given his fellow cast, there is not much firepower around him to make Gowtham look like he deserves his paycheck. CSK will be stretched again to score big runs and that will not bode well for his outlook, especially with his limited IPL match experience. AC: Chris Morris going for 16.25 crores when his base price was 75 lakhs is the height of reckless bidding. Aaron Finch and Jason Roy going unsold is also surprising given their international track record in the format. By: Chinmay Vaidya
Washington Sundar, Shardul Thakur, T Natarajan, Navdeep Saini and Mohammed Siraj all made contributions in India's 2-1 Test series victory over Australia, giving hope to emerging players who get their start in franchise T20 leagues that a jump to the international level is possible in any format. That India group made the leap from the IPL to international Test cricket and performed fairly well. This discovery largely happened by accident after most of India's starting XI suffered injuries and Virat Kohli removed himself after the first Test due to the birth of his child. Despite having little experience in the Test format, these five were able to translate the franchise T20 game to a new format. Rishabh Pant, another IPL star, was the run machine for India during the last two Tests. He's the best example of the benefits of franchise cricket. These benefits aren't exclusive to India. Australia has its own franchise T20 league in the Big Bash and with it comes a new crop of players ready to make their mark on the international stage. Many of these young stars will be on display in the playoffs. Defending champions Sydney Sixers are once again in a prime position to lift the trophy thanks to Josh Philippe. The 23-year old followed his 487-run campaign from last year with 454 runs in the regular season while improving his strike rate from 129.9 to 149.3. Philippe was disappointing in the IPL bubble, but he's bounced back nicely in familiar conditions. He'll be part of Australia's T20 tour of New Zealand. Jake Weatherald is another improving T20 batsman capable of producing runs in bunches. The 26-year old put together his second consecutive 400-run season and fourth consecutive 300-run season while improving his strike rate to 143.7. Weatherald will be the key for the Adelaide Strikers to spring a surprise from the bottom of the playoff bracket. The top four leading wicket-takers from the Big Bash regular season will also be in the playoffs. Jhye Richardson isn't new to the international scene with two Tests, 13 ODIs and nine T20Is under his belt but the Perth strike bowler had to wait nearly a year between ODIs and will wait nearly two years to make another T20I appearance. He's in the squad for the T20 tour of New Zealand, but he'll look to add more wickets in the playoffs and a title for Perth. Tanveer Sangha will also be joining Australia's tour of New Zealand after racking up 21 wickets for the Sydney Thunder in the regular season. The 19-year old legspinner will likely be brought along slowly and will look to Adam Zampa for additional tips. Wes Agar, younger brother of Australia regular Ashton Agar, has made his case for a call-up with 21 wickets for the Strikers this season. Unlike his older brother, Wes Agar is a right-arm fast bowler and will likely have to wait in a long line of young Australian pacers. Mark Steketee will look to follow the path of India's IPL stars when joining Australia's Test squad for the South Africa tour. The 27-year old pacer has been Brisbane's top wicket taker and is a big reason why the Heat are in the playoffs after a disappointing finish last season. He'll face off against Wes Agar and Weatherald in the bottom of the playoff bracket. Elsewhere, Philippe will have to contend with Richardson in the first qualifier while Sangha awaits the winner of Adelaide-Brisbane. Philippe, Richardson, Sangha and Steketee are getting international looks after strong Big Bash campaigns. Look for Weatherald, Wes Agar and other young Australians to join the mix soon as the board taps into a rich domestic talent pool. |